Method
Two pillars, 50/50 headline. v1.1 tilts Pillar 1 by adding CS6 at 18% without breaking the v1.0 structure.
Pillars
P1 — Attitudes toward civil society
Higher = more closed / repressed civic space. Laws and behavior (de jure + de facto), not speeches.
- CS1 Civic space / CSO
- CS2 Expression & media
- CS3 Association / assembly / NGOs
- CS4 Organized labor (ITUC)
- CS5 Voice / contestation (WGI VA)
- CS6 Domestic control apparatus (v1.1)
P2 — Socioeconomic distress
Higher = more deprivation, inequality, exclusion, shock. Unchanged in v1.1.
- SE1 Deprivation (24%)
- SE2 Human development (24%)
- SE3 Distribution (20%)
- SE4 Exclusion / youth (16%)
- SE5 Shock & level (16%)
Dual P1 formulas
v1.0 baseline
P1_v1.0 = 0.40×CS1 + 0.20×CS2
+ 0.16×CS3 + 0.12×CS4
+ 0.12×CS5
Keep computing forever. Do not overwrite in place.
v1.1 with CS6 18% of P1
P1_v1.1 = 0.32×CS1 + 0.16×CS2
+ 0.14×CS3 + 0.10×CS4
+ 0.10×CS5 + 0.18×CS6
Headline for new releases; always show next to v1.0.
GLII_ADD_v* = 0.5 × P1_v* + 0.5 × P2
ΔP1 ≈ 0.18 × (CS6 − CS_old) · ΔGLII_ADD ≈ 0.09 × (CS6 − CS_old)
| Subindex | v1.0 of P1 | v1.1 of P1 | Δ pp |
|---|---|---|---|
| CS1 civic space | 40% | 32% | −8 |
| CS2 media | 20% | 16% | −4 |
| CS3 assembly / NGO | 16% | 14% | −2 |
| CS4 ITUC | 12% | 10% | −2 |
| CS5 WGI Voice | 12% | 10% | −2 |
| CS6 control apparatus | 0% | 18% | +18 |
CS6 children (equal 25% when all present)
CS6A — Legalized / unchecked surveillance
FOTN / surveillance items; proxy 100−FOTN
FOTN / surveillance items; proxy 100−FOTN
CS6B — Spyware / intercept + civic targeting
Carnegie / Citizen Lab; 0 ≠ innocent
Carnegie / Citizen Lab; 0 ≠ innocent
CS6C — Interior-budget shape + intel opacity
IMF GFS / OBS — never SIPRI milex
IMF GFS / OBS — never SIPRI milex
CS6D — Digital repression operations
KeepItOn / OONI / NetBlocks user-hours
KeepItOn / OONI / NetBlocks user-hours
Need ≥2 children. Do not regional-mean impute. CS6 = mean(available A–D).
Forbidden inputs (R13–R20)
- R13 No SIPRI milex in CS6 (Ukraine / Israel / Poland false positives).
- R14 No ITU Global Cybersecurity Index (rewards having a cyber agency).
- R15 No X / forum volume as a score.
- R16 CS6B=0 means “not in the inventories,” not proof of innocence.
- R17 FOTN ~70 countries; outside that use statutes + V-Dem + shutdowns +
flag_fotn_missing. - R18 Customer of NSO ≠ tyranny; civic-target uplift is mandatory.
- R19 Israel-as-exporter ≠ Israel-as-most-surveilled; code WB/Gaza and 1948 Israel separately or flag.
- R20
OPT_DEFLECTstays weight 0 (companion overlay only).
Missing-data summary (R1–R11)
- R1 A pillar computes only if ≥3 of its 5 subindices exist.
- R2 No composite if either pillar is missing.
- R3 Use listed fallback and set matching flag; never silently swap.
- R4 No regional-mean imputation of civic scores.
- R5 SES may be carried forward ≤3 years (
flag_stale_ses). - R6 Civic inputs stale >1 year = missing.
- R7 PIP fill_gaps off by default.
- R8 Missing ITUC/RSF → renormalize; do not drop China/India.
- R9 Pop <300k or non-sovereign → annex, not headline.
- R10 Keep state collapse with
flag_collapse=1. - R11 Data quality (DQ) = share of core indicators observed; do not headline-rank if DQ < 0.60.
Sensitivity — CS6 weight of P1
Publish rank correlations at CS6 weights 0% / 10% / 18% / 25% of P1 so 18% is not a sacred single choice.
0%
= v1.0
10%
light tilt
18%
headline v1.1
25%
hot sensitivity
Worked demo — AAA / BBB / CCC
Already-scaled 0–100 inputs from sheet 04_Demo_formulas.
| ISO3 | Label | Civic v1.0 | Civic v1.1 | Δ civic | Hardship | Score v1.0 | Score v1.1 | Type |
|---|
Interpretation
AAA (closed-poor + apparatus) barely moves — already maxed. BBB stays Q2 — CS6 is why you trust the control label.
CCC’s P1 falls when the watching machine is thin. CS6 is not a one-way “add points to countries we dislike” knob.